Mexico in the Demographic Transition Model: Stage 2 (Early Expanding)

Mexico is currently in Stage 2: Early Expanding of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM).

Characteristics

• High Birth Rate: ~19.5 births/1,000 (2020), driven by cultural norms, religious influence, and historically limited contraceptive access.
• Declining Death Rate: ~7.9 deaths/1,000 (2020), due to improved healthcare, sanitation, nutrition, and vaccination.
• Rapid Population Growth: Natural increase ~1.2% annually; population grew from 92M (1990) to 127M+ (2020).
• Urbanization: >80% urban; migration to cities for jobs, education, services.

Challenges

Youth bulge strains education, employment, housing, and environment. Policy focus: expanding family planning, female education, formal employment, and sustainable resource management.

Trajectory

As fertility declines further (already near replacement in urban areas), Mexico will transition to Stage 3 (Late Expanding) with slowing growth.