San Diego Earthquake Risk: Faults, Forecasts, and Preparedness

San Diego sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire, crisscrossed by active faults. Historical quakes include the 1920 Baja California, 1979 Imperial Valley, and 2010 El Mayor–Cucapah events.

Key Faults & Scenarios

• Rose Canyon Fault – Runs beneath downtown and La Jolla; capable of M7.0–7.5.
• San Jacinto Fault – High slip rate; major quake potential east of the city.
• Elsinore & Imperial Faults – Southern extensions adding to regional hazard.

USGS Hazard Maps

Probabilistic models show significant likelihood of strong shaking (MMI VII+) in the next 30 years. No precise prediction is possible.

Preparedness Essentials

• Retrofit older buildings (soft-story, unreinforced masonry).
• Secure heavy furniture, water heaters.
• Family emergency plan + 72-hour kit.
• Participate in Great ShakeOut drills.

Awareness and mitigation—not prediction—save lives.