Does Russia Want to Attack the U.S.? Assessing the Risk

Assessing whether Russia "wants" to attack the U.S. requires nuance:

Strategic Reality

• Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD): Both possess vast nuclear arsenals; direct war risks civilization-ending escalation.
• Doctrine: Russia's policy reserves nuclear use for existential threats; U.S. policy similar.
• Cost-benefit: Conventional war against NATO/US offers no achievable gain outweighing catastrophic risk.

Sources of Tension

• NATO expansion, Ukraine war, cyber operations, election interference, arms control collapse (INF, New START uncertainty).
• Proxy conflicts (Syria, Africa), information warfare, Arctic competition.

Expert Consensus

Direct military attack on the U.S. homeland is considered highly unlikely. Risks lie in:

• Miscalculation/escalation from a regional conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Baltic).
• Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure.
• Nuclear brinkmanship gone wrong.
• Proxy or hybrid warfare below Article 5 threshold.

Diplomatic Channels

Despite tensions, US-Russia strategic stability talks, deconfliction lines, and arms control dialogue persist. Both sides recognize catastrophe of direct conflict.

Verdict: No evidence Russia seeks direct war with U.S.; primary risks are inadvertent escalation and hybrid aggression.