California Population: 39.5 Million (July 2021 Census Estimate)

39.5 million — US Census Bureau estimate, July 1, 2021.

Context

• Peak: 39.54M (Jan 2020) — first decline since 1850
• 2022 estimate: 39.0M (-0.5%)
• 2023 estimate: 38.9M

Drivers of Decline

• Domestic outmigration (to TX, AZ, NV, WA, ID)
• Birth rate below replacement (1.52 TFR)
• Immigration slowdown (2017–2021 policy + pandemic)
• COVID mortality (90K+ deaths)

Still #1

Despite decline, California remains the most populous state — Texas #2 at 30M. Los Angeles County alone (9.8M) > 40 states.