In the 1940s, principles of travel behavior analysis analyzed worker travel within England, in preparation for post-World War II revitalization projects. At this point, the work was broken down into predictable categories, such as time duration and riding patterns. By the 1970s, researchers developed a model for forecasting traffic and travel.
In 1963, Colin Buchanan's "Traffic in Towns" established principles of the most common type of analysis, transportation forecasting. Classical transportation forecasting uses a four-step model. First, analysts estimate the frequency of trips to or away from a specific destination, coming to a number for the trip generations. Second, the analysts connect origins of trips to the destination, and vice versa, coming to a number for the trip distributions. Third, analysts narrow the modes of transportation, giving a sense of mode choices travelers typically use. Fourth, the analysts try to match the mode, destination and origin to a specific route.
Time-use research breaks down how people divide their day---contracted, committed, necessary and free time. Contracted time refers to time given to work or other contractual arrangements. Committed time involves more loosely defined responsibilities, such as raising a family or maintaining a home. Necessary time refers to the time allocated to required activities, such as eating and sleeping. Free time refers to any time left over, though it doesn't necessarily mean time used for fun.
Modifications to the classical analytical models formed between the 1940s and the 1970s factor in gender, race, class and ethnic trends into patterns. The New York Metropolitan Transportation Council has created a "Best Practice Model," which attempts to predict how demographic changes influence travel within an area. Other governmental and private agencies have developed models that weigh interviews, cost, benefits and polling data differently.
The early 1970s marked the founding of the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research to facilitate conversation between researchers. Every three years, the association holds a conference where members present their work. The association publishes selections from each conference, encapsulating the evolving concerns of behavior analysts and the changing dynamics of travel behavior itself.
