Between 1300 and 1500, crossing oceans was a gamble with death. Seven interlocking factors made maritime travel extraordinarily dangerous:
Dead reckoning—estimating position from speed, direction, and time—was the primary method. No reliable longitude determination existed. Errors compounded daily; ships routinely missed targets by hundreds of miles.
Vessels were small, poorly ballasted, and lacked structural understanding of hydrodynamics. Hull forms evolved empirically, not scientifically. They leaked, rolled excessively, and couldn't sail efficiently close to the wind.
No meteorological science, no forecasts, no storm tracking. Sailors encountered hurricanes, rogue waves, and prolonged calms blindly. The 1421 Ming treasure fleet disaster and countless unnamed losses attest to this.
Coastal charts were rare, inaccurate, or nonexistent. Reefs, shoals, and hidden rocks claimed ships routinely. The Portuguese "volta do mar" strategy—sailing far offshore to catch winds—exchanged coastal hazards for open-ocean isolation.
Mediterranean corsairs, Baltic pirates, and state-sanctioned privateers preyed on merchantmen. Naval conflicts between Venice, Genoa, Aragon, Castile, and later Portugal disrupted trade routes continuously.
Scurvy (vitamin C deficiency) killed more sailors than combat for centuries. Dysentery, typhus, smallpox, and malaria spread rapidly in cramped, unsanitary conditions. No germ theory, no effective treatments.
Months or years at sea meant cumulative exposure to all above risks. Food spoiled, water fouled, crews exhausted. The 1519-1522 Magellan circumnavigation lost ~90% of its 270 men.
The 15th-16th century "Age of Discovery" brought incremental improvements: magnetic compasses, astrolabes, portolan charts, caravel design, and eventually the marine chronometer (1760s) for longitude. Each reduced one risk factor, gradually transforming ocean travel from desperate venture to calculable enterprise.