Ferdinand and Isabella didn't immediately fund Columbus. Their hesitation (1486–1492) stemmed from rational statecraft:
Sailing west to reach Asia contradicted accepted geography (Ptolemy, Toscanelli). Most experts thought Earth's circumference was larger; Columbus underestimated it by ~⅓. The voyage seemed speculative.
Three ships, crews, supplies = major investment. Failure meant total loss. Spain's treasury was strained.
The war against the Emirate of Granada (final Muslim state in Iberia) consumed resources and attention until its fall in January 1492. Only after victory could the monarchs spare bandwidth.
Late‑15th‑century caravels were capable but untested for open‑ocean, multi‑month voyages. Navigation relied on dead reckoning; longitude determination was impossible.
Portugal dominated African coastal route (Bartholomeu Dias rounded Cape of Good Hope, 1488). Spain wanted its own path but had less maritime infrastructure.
The rest is history—but it was a close‑run decision.