Nigeria on the Demographic Transition Model: Stage 3

Nigeria is currently in Stage 3 (Late Expanding) of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM).

DTM Stages & Nigeria's Trajectory

Stage	Name	Birth Rate	Death Rate	Growth	Nigeria
1	High Stationary	Very High	Very High	Low/Stable	Pre-1950 (not experienced)
2	Early Expanding	High	Falling Rapidly	Rapid	1950–1975
3	Late Expanding	Declining	Falling Slowly	Slowing	Current (since ~1975)
4	Low Stationary	Low	Low	Low/Stable	Not yet reached
5	Declining	Very Low	Low/Stable	Negative	Future

Current Indicators (2023 estimates)

Crude Birth Rate: ~34/1000 (down from 48 in 1975)
Crude Death Rate: ~11/1000 (down from 24 in 1975)
Total Fertility Rate: ~5.1 (down from 6.8 in 1980)
Population Growth: ~2.4%/year (adding ~5M annually)
Population: ~224M (largest in Africa)

Drivers of Transition

Urbanization (53% urban)
Female education gains (but regional disparities)
Contraceptive prevalence ~17% (modern methods)
Child survival improvement
Economic pressures

Challenges to Stage 4

High fertility in North (TFR 6–7), low contraceptive access, cultural/religious norms, poverty, gender inequality, weak health systems. Demographic dividend possible with investment in education, jobs, reproductive health.

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