Road vs. Rail in Pakistan (1990–2007): Diverging Trajectories

Between 1990 and 2007, Pakistan's transport sector underwent a decisive modal shift: road transport surged while rail declined, reshaping mobility, logistics, and public finances.

1. Road Transport Growth

• Vehicle fleet: Cars/jeeps +200%, buses +80%, trucks +120% (1990–2007).
• Policy drivers: Auto financing liberalization, NHA highway upgrades (M1, M2, N-5), fuel subsidies, import duty cuts on CKD kits.
• Private sector: Daewoo, Faisal Movers, Niazi Express revolutionized intercity bus; trucking fragmented but expanded.
• Share: Road captured >90% passenger-km and >65% freight tonne-km by 2007.

2. Rail Decline

• Underinvestment: PR (Pakistan Railways) capex <1% of transport budget; deferred maintenance.
• Asset decay: Locomotive availability <50%; wagon shortage; speed restrictions on 60% of track.
• Service cuts: Branch lines closed; frequency slashed; passenger revenue fell.
• Management: Political appointments, overstaffing (80K+ employees), corruption.

3. Consequences

• Congestion & safety: N-5 (Karachi–Peshawar) chronic gridlock; 15K+ road deaths/yr.
• Pollution: Transport = ~25% CO₂; old diesel fleet, no emissions standards.
• Logistics cost: Pakistan's logistics cost ~18% GDP vs. 8–10% OECD—rail's share <5%.
• Missed integration: No intermodal terminals; rail–road transfer nonexistent.

4. Turning Point (Post-2007)

China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) triggered ML-1 upgrade (Karachi–Peshawar mainline), new locomotives (GE, CRRC), freight corridor vision. Progress slow—financing, governance, land acquisition hurdles.

Bottom Line

1990–2007: Policy neglect + market forces → road dominance, rail atrophy. Rebalancing requires sustained investment, corporatization of PR, and integrated logistics planning.